TAC CUP FINALS RACE
WHILE all bar one club will play finals this season it doesn’t make any less intense the final four rounds of the home and away season.
Under the new finals format, ladder positions at the conclusion of Round 17, the final home and away match, remain crucial.
And, of course, Greater Western Sydney, Western Jets and Bendigo Pioneers are locked in a battle for the final two finals vacancies.
While the top four teams will earn a double chance in the first week, clubs that finish fifth through twelfth will all play in cut-throat, elimination finals.
With first versus fourth and second versus third in the first week of finals earning the right to higher ranking, week two will see the top four ranked clubs play against the elimination finals winners.
Match-ups will be worked out on a ranking basis, ie; highest ranked team against lowest ranked winner with only the winners advancing to two Preliminary Finals in week three.
Winners of each Preliminary Final will play off for the 2010 TAC Cup premiership.
With that as a back drop, here is how all clubs are positioned for the all important final month before finals.
NORTHERN KNIGHTS
Position: First
Record: 12-1
Percentage: 179
Games played: 13
Season so far: NORTHERN Knights have been the competition trendsetter since the season opened. The Knights have dropped just the one match – a 38-point loss against Oakleigh back in Round 5, but enter the home stretch riding a seven game winning streak. Apart from a six-point win against Gippsland in Round 9, Northern has been merciless on its rivals. Seven times the Knights have won by 50 plus points, including two games where they’ve won by more than 100 points. Five times Northern has kicked 20 or more goals, but while its offence has been potent, its defence has been miserly. Oakleigh is the only team to kick a century scoreline against it and six times the Knights have held the opposition to single digit goals.
What’s ahead: Bye, Murray (H), Sandringham (H), Dandenong (A)
Likely scenario: While it has a bye scheduled in its run home, it’s hard to visualise the Knights relinquishing top spot with two of its remaining games at home. Much interest will centre on the last home and away match when they travel to Shepley Oval to take on Dandenong, regarded as a legitimate premiership challenger.
GEELONG FALCONS
Position: Second
Record: 10-2
Percentage: 155
Games played: 12
Season so far: While it has not dominated as it did last season, Geelong is enjoying a stellar season. Apart from successive losses to Eastern – by three points – and Northern in Rounds 6 & 7, the Falcons haven’t looked like losing. Geelong has won its past five matches by an average of six goals. Included in that streak was a win over the highly-rated Dandenong. Geelong also owns a win over another top four club – Oakleigh. The Falcons haven’t racked up huge scorelines like Northern – its highest score was against Bendigo in the opening round – its defence has also been granite like. Northern is the only team that opponents haven’t been able to post a century scoreline against while they’ve held rivals to seven single digit goal hauls.
What’s ahead: GWS (H), Calder (A), Eastern (H), Oakleigh (H)
Likely scenario: With one game more to play than Northern, Geelong would need to win all four of its matches and hope the Knights drop its match against Dandenong to wrest away top spot. The Falcons have three games at home, including its most dangerous match against Oakleigh, which is expected to be at full strength in the last week before finals. While top spot may beyond them, it’s hard to see Geelong dropping out from the No 2 spot.
OAKLEIGH CHARGERS
Position: Third
Record: 10-3
Percentage: 131
Games played: 13
Season so far: After opening the season with seven successive wins, Oakleigh tripped up with three consecutive losses, but all, significantly, were in the heart of the AFL Under 18 National Championships. The Chargers have rebounded to win its past four, including a thrilling one-point win over Dandenong, to cement its place in the top four with an influx of private school players expected just before finals. During its losing streak, Oakleigh found it tough kicking goals, scoring more than 10 goals only once. It was telling considering Oakleigh has kicked 15 goals or more seven times. Significantly, Oakleigh is the only team to defeat Northern, inflicting a 38-point win at the neutral City Oval, Coburg.
What’s ahead: Gippsland (H), Bye, Bendigo (A), Geelong (A)
Likely scenario: While it has only three matches remaining and just one at home, Oakleigh should have the edge against Gippsland and Bendigo setting up a possible finals preview against Geelong. The Chargers are expecting to be strengthened by the inclusion of many of its private school stars just before the finals.
DANDENONG STINGRAYS
Position: Fourth
Record: 9-3
Percentage: 176
Games played: 12
Season so far: For much of the season, Dandenong has looked as good, if not better than any other team in the competition. Few teams, with the exception of Northern, have been as ruthless. The Stingrays boast five victories where the average winning margin was 12 goals and five times they’ve kicked a 20 goal plus scoreline. Included in its three losses was a heart-breaker one point against Oakleigh where they had four more scoring shots. Another of its defeats – against Geelong – occurred when a huge chunk of players were away playing in the National Championships. Dandenong’s defence ranks alongside Northern and Geelong. Eight times the Stingrays have shackled the opposition to less than 10 goals while allowing just the one century scoreline – against Murray. The Stingrays served notice just how lethal they can be in the last round with the biggest win of any club this season – a massive 161-point thumping of Bendigo.
What’s ahead: Calder (A), Sandringham (A), GWS (H), Northern (H)
Likely scenario: Challenging month ahead with three of Dandenong’s matches against top seven placed teams and two of those games are on the road. Biggest test shapes against ladder-leader Northern in the final home and away round. Many believe that Dandenong’s list is as strong as any other team, but it will need to be given its run home.
SANDRINGHAM DRAGONS
Position: Fifth
Record: 8-4
Percentage: 123
Games played: 12
Season so far: After losing three of its first five matches, Sandringham have gone on a winning march that so far has taken them to the doorstep of the top four. The Dragons have won seven of its past eight matches with its only loss coming against Northern when they stumbled by 38-points. During that winning march, the Dragon have ridden big wins – North Ballarat (44-points), Bendigo (76) and Greater Western Sydney (120). It’s given Sandringham its best season since 1999, ironically the year they won the premiership. Interestingly, Sandringham has not been flamboyant in its success. Apart from its Bendigo and GWS wins, the Dragons haven’t kicked a century scoreline, but significantly, its constant pressure has held the opposition in check. Seven times Sandringham has kept rivals to less than 10 goals and no team has kicked a century scoreline against it.
What’s ahead: Murray (H), Dandenong (H), Northern (A), Bendigo (A)
Likely scenario: Trailing Dandenong by one match plus a considerable percentage, Sandringham must defeat the Stingrays in Round 15 if it is to have any chance of moving into the top four and with it a double chance in the first week of the finals. If Dandenong is not a big enough test, the Dragons must then back up against Northern.
MURRAY BUSHRANGERS
Position: Sixth
Record: 8-4
Percentage: 112
Games played: 12
Season so far: AFTER roaring into the season with five successive wins, the Bushrangers’ season has flowed with bunches of losses, more wins followed by a couple of losses. Murray has cleaned up on clubs below them on the ladder, highlighted by a 12-goal win against reigning premiers Calder and kicking 20 goal plus scorelines against GWS and Bendigo. But, just as significantly, Murray has been unable to beat any of the clubs above them on the ladder. They’ve lost to Geelong by 52-points, Dandenong (40), Oakleigh (15) and Sandringham (14), however, it’s most telling loss as far as jostling for a top four position goes was its 63-point loss to Western when many of its players were at the National Championships.
What’s ahead: Sandringham (H), Northern (A), Calder (H), Gippsland (A)
Likely scenario: Murray is in a similar situation to Sandringham it must win all of its remaining matches and then hope Dandenong drops two if it is to make a late run for a top four finish. Manageable in theory, but Murray faces a tough assignment given all is remaining matches are against top eight-placed clubs.
CALDER CANNONS
Position: Seventh
Record: 7-5
Percentage: 100
Games played: 12
Season so far: Calder has endured a bumpy ride as it mounts its premiership defence. The Cannons traded wins and losses for much of the early part of the season. Although they defeated Sandringham and Eastern in successive weeks, Calder then dropped games to Gippsland, Geelong and Murray in a three game block. But, to its credit the Cannons have regrouped to win its past three matches to elevate its wins above losses. For all its rollercoaster ride, Calder does own wins against Dandenong and Sandringham and proved most competitive against Northern, a 13-point loss, and Oakleigh, a two-point defeat.
What’s ahead: Dandenong (H), Geelong (H), Murray (A), Eastern (A)
Likely scenario: Calder could creep up a place or two on the ladder if it can extend its current winning streak, but that’s a big ask given they play Dandenong and Geelong in back to back weeks followed by Murray the week after.
GIPPSLAND POWER
Position: Eighth
Record: 5-7
Percentage: 121
Games played: 12
Season so far: GIPPSLAND owns a losing record, but its season falls into the ‘what if’ category. Four times the Power has failed in games decided by 17-points or less – Sandringham (12-points), Eastern (17), Northern (6) and Sandringham (8). Just two wins in those games would have given Gippsland a winning record and given it a slim chance of making the top four. Those close games aside, it’s been a case of feast or famine for Gippsland. Four of its wins have been by 69-points or more, including a 15-goal win against Calder and a 20-goal win against GSW, but it has also been on the receiving end of an 82-point drubbing by Dandenong and a 51-point defeat by Geelong. For such a wildly fluctuating season, Gippsland has been a very tough team to score against. Seven times they’ve held the opposition to less than 10-goals.
What’s ahead: Oakleigh (A), North Ballarat (A), Western (H), Murray (H)
Likely scenario: Gippsland can only move higher on the ladder if it wins its remaining games while Calder drops two matches. They may be too big an assignment given it plays Oakleigh this weekend.
NORTH BALLARAT REBELS
Position: Ninth
Record: 4-9
Percentage: 91
Games played: 13
Season so far: North Ballarat’s season has been in bursts, but, unfortunately for the Rebels there has been more losing than winning spurts. In the early part of the season North Ballarat won four of five games, but as its unfolded all those wins were against teams directly south of them on the ladder. After a tough stretch where they played Dandenong, Oakleigh and Northern in successive weeks, North Ballarat showed its resolve by running Calder to two points. For the most part the Rebels have been able to kick goals – only once have then been held to single digit goals – it’s just that the opposition has kicked more.
What’s ahead: Bendigo (A), Gippsland (H), Bye, GWS (A)
Likely scenario: While it has only three home and away matches remaining, North Ballarat could gain some momentum going into the finals. The Rebels have a favourable run home and could reasonably expect to win all its matches.
EASTERN RANGES
Position: Tenth
Record: 4-8
Percentage: 69
Games played: 12
Season so far: The Ranges have struggled to gain traction at any stage. After an early win against Western, Eastern dropped four in a row, including one by four points against Calder. Only once in the season – against Geelong and Gippsland – have Eastern been able to post successive wins and after its bye in Round 9 they’ve endured heavy losses against Northern (106 points) and Gippsland (77). Applying scoreboard pressure has been a season-long battle with only one century scoreline – against Western in Round 1 – and five scores under 10 goals. Conversely, Eastern has coughed up six 100-points against tallies.
What’s ahead: Western (H), GWS (A), Geelong (A), Calder (H)
Likely scenario: Eastern could finish off what has been a tough season by posting a couple more wins in the coming week. The Ranges would fancy its chances against both Western and GWS.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Position: Eleventh
Record: 2-10
Percentage: 56
Games played: 12
Season so far: TOUGH initiation for the new kids on the block. Greater Western Sydney gained a rapid-fire introduction with a 94-point loss in its opening round match against Northern Knights. It is one of seven defeats greater than 50-points. GSW took the sword to Bendigo and to a lesser extent Western, but it’s been hard going since the win against the Jets in Round 7. Currently, the club is riding a six game losing streak with an average losing margin of 94-points. Only twice in that period has GSW reached 10-goals with five of the six losses witnessing the opposition kicking 20-plus goals.
What’s ahead: Geelong (A), Eastern (H), Dandenong (A), North Ballarat (H)
Likely scenario: Greater Western Sydney’s torrid run could well continue given its taxing end to the season, especially away games against Geelong and Dandenong. However, GWS will play finals unless Western and Bendigo win two of its remaining matches.
WESTERN JETS
Position: Twelfth
Record: 1-12
Percentage: 62
Games played: 13
Season so far: EXTREMELY hard year for the Jets who endured a 10-game losing streak start to the season before they registered their sole win of the year – an 11-goal win against Murray. Apart from the Murray match, Western has only kicked double digit goals in three other matches. The Jets have been competitive in many games with only Oakleigh (13 goals), Gippsland (69-points), Dandenong (116) and Calder (63) shooting them down.
What’s ahead: Eastern (A), Bendigo (H), Gippsland (A), Bye
Likely scenario: Western is still in control of its own finals destiny, but there is no doubt its ability to play finals probably all hinges on its home match against Bendigo. If the Jets win its season will be extended beyond the home and away season.
BENDIGO PIONEERS
Position: Thirteenth
Record: 1-11
Percentage: 50
Games played: 12
Season so far: ANOTHER battling season for the Pioneers whose sole win of the season was against third-placed Oakleigh, who they eclipsed by 38-points at the Chargers home ground. Bendigo endured five straight losses before the Oakleigh win and now are on the losing end of a six game trough. While competitive against Gippsland, Calder and Eastern, Bendigo has been pounded by top-of-the-table teams – Geelong (116-points), Northern (141) and Dandenong (161).
What’s ahead: North Ballarat (H), Western (A), Oakleigh (H), Sandringham (H)
Likely scenario: For Bendigo’s season to continue past the home and away season it must defeat Western. Also in its favour is that three of its last four games are slotted as home games.
Last Modified on 18/08/2010 11:56