Footy Heads! Welcome to the first preview of the second half of the AFL Ontario Season. What a season it has been so far, some big surprises starting with the Rebels on top and the Roos starting the season 4-0.
Then we move on to some teams like the Dingos who have been all but disappointing, while the Gargoyles and Blues looked the goods in preseason but have started slow and need a strong finish. Lets not forget our friends in the Nation's Capital - they've won more games in Toronto than they have at home and only travel once more in the final 6 games of the season.
The second half of the season is on our door step, and this week, I thought I would redo my preseason ladder predictions for Division 1 and provide some new predictions, and my reasoning. This will be followed by my #AFLOrd7 predictions for both Divisions. Looking forward to some feedback on twitter @PhantomAFLO or email phantom@aflontario.com
1. Toronto Rebels
While I think the Rebels are likely to drop one somewhere along the line, they probably have the easiest run home and could go through the Home and Away season undefeated if they continue the way they started and improve. The real test should come in Round 8 against the Gargoyles at Humber South. Should the Rebels stay relatively injury free, they could finish the Home & Away season on top, but as history has proved this seems to be more of a curse than a blessing. Also don't forget last season when they dropped a lot of games in the second half. Which Rebels team will we see in the second half of the season?
2. Broadview Hawks
Also unlikely to drop another game are the Hawks. They will be without Killa and Dullard for a few more weeks yet, but should see the majority of their other key players return to the line up for Round 7. If they hadn't dropped the one game to the Rebels the two teams would be switched and the Rebels would be finishing second. If the Rebels do drop one, it could happen. They are still flag favourites in these eyes behind the mask as they have the experience and skills!
3. Ottawa Swans
Did somebody say home final in Ottawa? The Swans have one more game in Toronto this season which is against the Demons in Round 11. So besides that trip, will be sitting pretty at Rideau Carlton Raceway. The Swans could win 4 or 5 of their last 6 easily, The biggest challenge coming in Round 12 against the Hawks. They are set to finish well, but I feel there could be some bad results heading their way. My biggest question is, how will they do in Rounds 10, 11 and 12 when the likes of Strom, Shaunghnessy and Kozlowski are in Australia representing Canada? Who will fill the void? There's only so many guys you can pluck from montreal.
4. Central Blues
The Central Blues have shown in the past they like to charge home on a late and this year, with some added Australian talent will storm home in the final 6 games. If they win 5 of their last 6 they will finish in the Top 4. Drop 2 or 3 and they could be found to just miss out but while they do rely heavily on their Aussies to perform to compete, I think the Blues are starting to find some form at the right time of year and will make the Top 4 not the Bottom 4.
5. Grand River Gargoyles
With a slow start to the year, the Gargoyles need to win 4 of the last 6 which means beating at least one of the Rebels, Hawks or Blues, while winning all other games. The Blues and Hawks could be tough to beat in August considering the Gargoyles will be without their Coach and Top 4-5 players to IC14. Therefore, this week against the Eagles and then the Rebels in Round 8 are important games. Win the next 3 and the Gargoyles will be able to relax a little going into August without their stars and hope they all come back from Australia healthy. Win 5 games and they will finish 4th ahead of the Blues, but I don't think they will. Expected better things from this club!
6. Etobicoke Kangaroos
The Roos will be thanking their 4-0 start to the season when they sneak into the finals come the end of August. Was it just a lucky start to the season? Time will tell over the next month. With word around the league that Rory Lake is about to head off for the rest of the season, the Roos will have a gaping hole in the midfield. In addition their numbers are far from good so I expect them to run out of legs, especially if they get some injuries. With 2 games against the Hawks, the Rebels again in a double header at Guelph and Ottawa away they will be lucky to win 3 of the last 6. Central Blues this Friday in Round 7 is a huge game for the boys in Blue and White. A win in Round 7 could be the difference between seeing September action or not.
7. Toronto Eagles
The Eagles have a tough run home, possibly the toughest, and it starts this week against the Gargoyles. A win is desperately needed but it isn't likely to come. When key players like Minaker and Kennedy head to Australia for the International Cup and others missing from the team, there will be some big holes left in the Eagles line up and not enough players to fill them. With their one dimensional play going forward to their only target Falcioni, they will struggle to kick enough goals. While he's handy, he's not in the same league as other forwards around the league and they simply need more options in front of goals. While capable of sneaking victories, I predict the Eagles will win 2 of the last 6 at most and be left just missing out - possibly on percentage.
8. High Park Demons
I will probably get tweets from some young Aussie kid who's been here for 6 weeks and thinks he knows Ontario footy about this one but while the Demons showed some early season promise, they were always going to struggle and their decline in the last few weeks has proven my point. They really aren't the team people think they are. Even with the influx of Irish Canadaians they lack depth and rely too heavily on too few and a loss to the Eagles has crippled them. With the Rebels, Blues, Gargoyles and Swans in their final 6 games, I don't see them making it into September. They would have to beat at least 2 of them to have a shot at with and with Casey gone in August, it's not going to happen.
9. Toronto Dingos
Probably the biggest surprise for me was the Toronto Dingos as I expected them to be making an appearance in September without fail. Fail is exactly the word, a horrible start to the season, the only side they've beaten is below them and with the Hawks this week followed by the Blues, Rebels and Swans (away) - life is not going to get any easier. They truly have been dissapointing this year, especially after making the grand final last year. A big chance to win a couple late in the season when it means nothing, I think we'll see the Dingos and Demons in Round 12 playing a meaningless game and wanting to get to the pub as quickly as possible to commiserate a season to forget.
10. Hamilton Wildcats
I am not going to rub salt in the wounds of the Wildcats, everyone knows they are rebuilding and from a far, they seem to be doing a good job of it. Lots of young Canadians in the line up, they have improved every week under the leadership of guys like McDowell. They just need to keep pushing on and I would love to see them snatch a win from an unsuspecting, complacent Toronto team.
So Footy Heads, there you have it! My forecast for the Division 1 Standings at the end of the Home and Away Season, and now for my Round 7 predictions
Roos v Blues
A huge game for both clubs this Friday at Humber South. As I mentioned, the Roos have a seriously tough 4 weeks after this game so getting that 5th win on the board is crucial to their September aspirations.
On the opposite end, the Blues have been slowly finding some form, Daws should be back in this week which will give them another forward target. If they win this one, they could potentially win their final 6 games but they need to get over the Roos first.
Phantom Prediction - Blues by 10 points
Demons v Rebels
The Rebels and Demons hit it it out on Saturday morning at Humber and it is safe to say the Rebels go into this one as the the favourite. Undefeated this year in 6 games they are much improved and will be looking to continue their winning ways.
The Demons have been up and down at best this season! They beat Ottawa in Ottawa and Central Blues but couldn't get over the Eagles and were smashed by Broadview. This could be close depending which Demons out fit shows us.
Phantom Prediction - Rebels 30 points
Eagles v Gargoyles
The second big game at Humber South on Saturday will see the boys from "Grand River" travel to Toronto to take on the Eagles. If the Eagles are any chance of making the finals, they need to win this one. The one key factor playing to their advantage is that the Gargoyles generally don't do all that well on the bigger grounds, or haven't this season.
The Gargoyles know what is on the line with this one and that wins in July are going to be key to their success. I expect them to be out in force for this one. The Eagles have some weak links in the guts and up forward and I think a Gargoyles forward line of Kerm, Dyer and Logel will prove too much for the Eagles defense.
Phantom Prediction - Gargoyles 21 points
Hawks v Dingos
The Dingos travel to U of T to take on the reigning premiers who were much depleted last week. By all reports their stocks will be well bolstered again this week with the exception of Dullard and Killa. They have too many forward options and will really stretch the Dingos defense who besides McKay is looking old and slow.
The Dingos desperately need Big Wade to come back and provide them a forward target as big scores have been hard to come by this year and we know the Hawks can kick them!
Phantom Prediction - Hawks 40 points
Swans v Wildcats
The Swans are literally flying at the moment and don't expect anything less than a resounding victory over the Wildcats in an effort to lock in third place with some percentage. A tough ask for the Cats, they should look at this trip as a great way to get around each other with a mid-season footy trip and solidify some team spirit. Hopefully they can get some big numbers to make the trip.
Phantom Prediction - Swans
Womens
Blues v Roos
After a big win against the Demons last week, it is difficult to go against the Roos in this one. They really put some score on the board last week and are showing a lot of improvement.
In saying that I really do think it is time for the Blues to get up on the winners podium. Besides a preseason win in Ohio, the girls are without a win in quite some time in the AFL Ontario competition. I thought adding Bodashefsky to the line up would have made them a better side, maybe its time for her and Nichols do some damage. Fingers crossed they can get a win.
Phantom Prediction - Roos 15 points
Swans v Wildcats
Last week the Swans travelled to Hamilton, now the Wildcats travel to Ottawa. Will they have the same type of numbers that the Swans brought to town last week? I hope so! They are going to need everyone possible up there this week as the Swans are always difficult to beat on home soil.
Prior to last week the Swans were undefeated so will be looking to bounce back this week and into the winners circle.
Phantom Prediction - Swans 13 points
Well Fans, that is it for me for this week. Don't forget to use the #AFLOrd7 tag on tweets so I can follow games progress from my cave.
For those clubs who did not send their reports last week, please try to do so this week and without delays? Email is phantom@aflontario.com
The Ghost Who Handballs
Last Modified on 11/07/2014 06:43