MSBL EARLY TWISTS AND TURNS

 

As part of the ‘SBL Slam’ show airing on Monday nights on 98five, Craig Mansfield and myself will be writing regular blogs on our thoughts throughout the 2015 season.

 

As Craig beat me to the punch last week I have taken a leaf out of his book and penned my thoughts on what I believe is the strength of schedule for each MSBL team so far this season.

 

We have just witnessed the conclusion of Round 7, and there were some outstanding games played, most noticeably the buzzer beating heroics of Cody Ellis and the Stirling Senators during our broadcast game on 98five on Friday night, And how about the heart-stopping double overtime thriller between the Willetton Tigers and the Perth Redbacks on Monday afternoon? That game embodied what the SBL is all about, and the high quality of basketball that was produced was a credit to both clubs.

 

Just over a third of the season has been completed and I believe it’s time to gauge and get a read on each club, and in particular how the strength of schedule has shaped the season standings.

 

I’ve decided to use a slight variation on the method used by my co-host last week in his blog, to put the MSBL schedule under closer examination, in order to aid my interpretations.

 

I went through each clubs schedule and gave each opponent from Rounds 1-7 a score of 1,2 or 3. I have based my opponent scores on where each of the opponents on a clubs completed fixture is currently standing in the MSBL standings.

 

I have justified my opponent scores according to the following criteria:

 

Score of 1-Opponent currently stands 1-4 on the ladder.

Score of 2-Opponent currently stands 5-9 on the ladder.

Score of 3-Opponent currently stands 10-14 on the ladder.

 

I have added all the scores together for each clubs fixture and divided this by the number of games played by that club (As teams have played either 9,10 or 11 games!) For example here is my formula applied to the league leading SW Slammers:

 

v Buccs (1), v Lightning (3), v Eagles (3), v Senators (2), v Suns (3), v Magic (2)

v Giants (3) v Wolves (1), v Flames (2), v Hawks (3) and v Cougars (2)

 

Total=25 divided by 11 games played =2.27

 

Therefore, I believe that teams with a lower average have had a ‘tougher’ schedule to date. Teams with a higher average score I believe have had an ‘easier’ schedule in comparison.

The results of my formula are as follows, and teams are ranked from what I believe is an ‘easier’ schedule to ‘tougher’ schedule through rounds 1-7 of the MSBL Season:

 

RANK	TEAM	AVG SCORE	NOTES
1   (Easiest)	WILLETTON TIGERS	2.33	Have only played Wolves and Buccs, and played the 3 bottom teams, including the Eagles twice
2	ROCKINGHAM FLAMES	2.30	Played just two top four teams and played all 5 bottom teams
3	SOUTH WEST SLAMMERS	2.27	Played all bottom 5 teams and have only played two of the top 4 teams, both at home!
4	STIRLING SENATORS	2.22	Last four games have been against bottom 5 teams
5	MANDURAH MAGIC	2.20	6 home games, not travelled to Eaton, Geraldton or Kalgoorlie yet
6	PERRY LAKES HAWKS	2.11	Only 3 home games, however not had to travel to regional WA yet
7	COCKBURN COUGARS	2.1	Travelled to Eaton just last week, but have not travelled to Geraldton or Kalgoorlie
8	PERTH REDBACKS	2.1	Even mix, however have travelled to Kalgoorlie
9	GERALDTON BUCCANEERS	2.1	4 games in Metro area, away to Slammers and Magic
10	JOONDALUP WOLVES	2.0	Have played rest of the teams in top 4 plus Senators, Redbacks and Cougars
11	EAST PERTH EAGLES	1.90	Only other sides they have met so far in bottom 5 are Giants and Hawks. Played Tigers twice
12	LAKESIDE LIGHTNING	1.88	Played on road at Eaton, Geraldton and Mandurah
13	GOLDFIELDS GIANTS	1.77	Played all top 4 teams
14   (Toughest)	KALAMUNDA EASTERN SUNS	1.55	Played all top 4 teams away and Wolves twice! Played Geraldton away then East Perth at Morley following day!

 

Now I am just going to point out that this is my formula and thoughts on the strength of schedule, and I am certain there are differing opinions around the SBL! I am aware that the formula does not take into account playing opponents that are hampered with injury, double header games, kilometres travelled or even home floor/road factors etc. but if it stimulates interesting conversation around the league, then surely it is a positive thing!

 

‘MSBL PECKING ORDER’

 

Rather than use a well worn ‘Power Rankings’ title to order the MSBL teams (No disrespect Craig!) I have tried to combine the current standings and my own strength of schedule formula to create my first ‘MSBL Pecking Order’. I will revise the list at the completion of Round 10 and publish as part of the ‘SBL Slam’ blog.

 

Please let me state that the following are my own views about how each team currently stands in terms of competing for the championship, regardless of ladder position. I will begin listing teams starting from the bottom of my pecking order after round seven:

14. East Perth Eagles

It is no secret that the Eagles have had key players leave and player availability has been scarce. The Eagles have lost nine in a row since winning on opening night against the Hawks. Though the losses have not come from lack of effort, the Eagles defence has been fairly tight only allowing opponents on average 98.8 ppg Obviously not having Jervis for all but one game has hurt, but I believe the loss of Austin Kisselev and Nicola Donlagic has been just as telling. Kisselev last season averaged 10.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg, and the latter averaged 11.3ppg and 4 rpg. As improved as Jamie Barnett has been on offense, he is very foul prone (4.9 PFPG) and quality bigs are hard to replace. A silver lining as such has been the form of young star Rhys Vague who has been named in a 16-man Australian Emus squad in the build up to the 2015 FIBA Under-19 World Championships in Greece. Outstanding work and well deserved!

The unfortunate recent news of Head Coach Adam Forde stepping down for personal reasons in the interim is without doubt a big body blow for the club. I’m sure everyone in the basketball community wishes Adam the best, and I hope to see him return sooner rather than later.

Joe- Allan Tupaea will take over the head coaching reigns, and the Eagles may be faced with the very real possibility of being the first club to my knowledge, to take the wooden spoon after a championship season.

Next 3 games:

Geraldton Buccaneers (a)

Cockburn Cougars (h)

Joondalup Wolves (a)

 

13. Kalamunda Eastern Suns

Currently sitting thirteenth in the standings, by my formula the Suns have had the toughest schedule to date. Unfortunately for them, and despite excellent numbers from Lien Phillip (22.3ppg and 17.3 rpg) they are still a very young team who are struggling to put the ball in the bucket (Suns avg 88ppg, lowest output tied with East Perth) and are giving up around 104ppg. Seva Chan is putting up remarkable personal numbers compared to his career averages. In his 100 plus game career mostly spent with the Cougars Chan has averaged just 5.7ppg and 2.1apg. This season at his new club, Chan is averaging 17.8ppg and 4.7apg all whilst shooting a reliable 47.3% from the field. He is the early candidate for the SBL ‘Most Improved Player’ surely.

Next 3 games:

Lakeside Lightning (a)

Perth Redbacks (h)

Goldfields Giants (a)

 

12. Perry Lakes Hawks

The Hawks have lost four games on the trot now and sit at 2-7, which I believe is a poor return from a fairly favourable early season schedule. They had two impressive road wins against Mandurah and Rockingham, however the Hawks have lost their way on a recent skid that has produced on average just 88.25 ppg, whilst allowing their opponents around 102 ppg. Bryton Hobbs has appeared on paper to put up an impressive 25.9 ppg however his 37.4% field goal percentage and 30.1% 3PFG is a big concern, considering he has taken the fifth greatest amount of three pointers in the league this season (83). One big positive for Perry Lakes has been the discovery of Ryan Smith, who is an accurate three -ball shooter. With the Hawks schedule set to become decidedly tougher, I believe they will now be set for a very lean year.

Next 3 games:

Willetton Tigers (h)

Joondalup Wolves (a)

Kalamunda Eastern Suns (h)

 

11. Goldfields Giants

How can I have a team that has only just registered their first win for the season at eleven? Well, I believe the Giants have had the second toughest start in the SBL as far as the opening schedule suggests. They have been more competitive in their past three games, and their two imports are putting up notable numbers. Their big man from Texas, Jacob Holmen is in the SBL’s top ten for scoring and rebounding, with 23.8 ppg and 10.6 rpg. Jay Bowie has a sweet shooting stroke from the perimeter when he gets going, and one of the signings of the season has been Mathiang Muo. He was a champion last season with the East Perth Eagles and is a swingman who gives another scoring option and headaches for opponents on the perimeter.

 

Next 3 games:

Cockburn Cougars (h)

Kalamunda Eastern Suns (h)

Mandurah Magic (a)

 

10. Lakeside Lightning

Along with the Perry Lakes Hawks, the Lightning has been considered the benchmark for the MSBL since 2000, having appeared in seven grand finals and winning four titles. Every club has a rebuilding phase and Lakeside may just be entering that. Swing and Thomas are excellent imports; particularly the former who is scoring with relative ease (31.1ppg). Jarrad Prue has continued putting up impressive rebounding numbers in his new role off the bench. If Tom Parkinson and Corey Martin can achieve their full potential then the near future may just be a little brighter than expected. Lakeside will still be a handful for any side they face throughout the remainder of this season, as three of their losses could easily have gone their way. A 107-104 loss at home to Perth, a 117-116 loss to the Magic, and the Cody Ellis half court dagger at the Warwick Leisure Centre last Friday were all tight losses. Just to think their current record of 3-6 could have been reversed to 6-3. I think the Lightning have had the third toughest schedule so far, so there is a lot of upside for the rest of their season.

Next 3 games:

Kalamunda Eastern Suns (h)

Perth Redbacks (a)

Mandurah Magic (h)

 

9. Stirling Senators

Stirling has had a relatively easy schedule to start 2015. A win- loss record of 5-4 is a reasonable return having won four on the trot, but keep in mind these were over teams that currently reside in the bottom five positions on the table. The win over the Lightning on the buzzer was uplifting, but think back to last season, where the Senators were on the losing end of some very tight contests, and this recent win would surely seem sweeter. Cody Ellis has been scoring well (23.9 ppg) and stretches the floor well. Murmurs of his impending absence have been made around the SBL and surely this will have a big influence on the next few games for Stirling. Kyle Lindbergh has been a very valuable inclusion to the Senators roster this season as he can score (19ppg) and rebound exceptionally well (8.1rpg) for a 6’7” small forward. What I do like about the Senators is that they have seasoned experience in Austin Bruton and Tom Witts, and Dave Lindstrom in my opinion is one of the best coaches in the league.

Next 3 games:

Rockingham Flames (a)

Cockburn Cougars (a)

Willetton Tigers (a)

 

8. Rockingham Flames

I had the Flames pegged as a top four team at the beginning of the year and they justified that by starting the season with four straight wins. However, over their last 6 games the Flames have posted a disappointing 1-5 record and thus have slipped to eighth in the standings. Keeping in mind that more recent win was against the Suns, and by my formula the Flames have had the second easiest schedule to date. They have the worst home record out of the teams in the top 8 (2-3) and the next three games for the Flames are all at home. There were whispers around the league of an injury to 2014 League MVP Cooper Land, but surely that was quashed on the weekend when Land posted a 24point, 16 rebound effort against the Magic, albeit in a losing team. Ryan Godfrey and Taylor Land are still a formidable backcourt duo however, so watch this space.

 

Next 3 games:

Stirling Senators (h)

Joondalup Wolves (h)

Willetton Tigers (h)

 

7. Perth Redbacks

I believe the Redbacks fit into the top eight teams right now despite what their record of 4-6 indicates on paper. Yes, they have got their wins against teams below them, however in all losses bar the Flames game, the Redbacks have been competitive despite the final margins. They had chances to snatch victory in the double overtime thriller that went to the Tigers earlier this week, in what was one of the most enthralling SBL games I have witnessed in recent years. A big part of that game was the influence of Ray Turner, who in my opinion is THE BEST player in the SBL this year, and the numbers agree.

 

Turner is the MSBL leading scorer at the moment with 31.2ppg and is tied for second alongside Jarrad Prue in rebounding at 18.6 boards per game. He is a proven shot blocker and shoots an outstanding 54.5% clip from the field, as well as 75% at the charity stripe.

 

What is more remarkable is Turner’s stat line from his past four games:

 

OPPONENT	POINTS	REBOUNDS	FG%
Giants	45	20	16-22
Wolves	34	18	14-23
Hawks	45	22	16-29
Tigers	58	26	21-34

 

No, your eyes don’t deceive you! Ray Turner in his last four games has averaged

45.5 ppg, 21.5 rpg at 62% FG!! And this is against two teams in the top four. If you haven’t seen Turner play yet you best get down to Curtin Stadium before the end of 2015. Toss in a healthy Dennis Tawhiti into the Redbacks line-up and the balanced schedule that remains for Perth, I trust they are a team that will rise up the ‘Pecking Order’.

Next 3 games:

Kalamunda Eastern Suns (a)

Lakeside Lightning (h)

Cockburn Cougars (a

 

6. Cockburn Cougars

I will admit straight away that I misjudged the Cockburn Cougars during the pre season. I predicted them to finish at the bottom of the regular season standings, and boy, have Matt Parsons and his team proved me wrong! In fact, I will just take a moment to finish eating my own words…

 

The Cougars have been competitive in every game of their season so far. In fact their biggest losing margin was only recently to the Slammers, to the tune of 12 points. They had early wins against the Hawks and Senators, and even though they are currently 1-2 against the top four teams, they posted a win against the Wolves and only just narrowly lost to the Tigers 104-102 in a game they trailed by 18 at half time. I still believe Gavin Field is the most talented and consistent Australian player in the MSBL. Cougar import Najee Lane has been a revelation for the Cougars, averaging 23ppg and 9.3rpg. He is also the league leader in steals so far this season, averaging over three per game. A concern however has been just two wins from their last five games; nonetheless the schedule over the next few weeks is promising.

 

Next 3 games:

Goldfields Giants (a)

Stirling Senators (h)

East Perth Eagles (a)

 

5.Willetton Tigers

I indicated earlier that I think the Tigers have had the easiest schedule so far. Willetton have played the Wolves and Buccaneers in the top four, getting comprehensively beaten on both occasions, and have had very narrow wins over Cockburn and Perth. The Tigers showed a lot of heart and character in that recent win over the Redbacks, where Nic Cody and Kyle Armour where simply outstanding. The other five wins for the Tigers have all been against the bottom five teams and the schedule will be much tougher as the season progresses. One stat that has surprised me is that the Tigers have the tightest defence in the SBL, giving up on average a miserly 92.11 ppg. This is a far cry to what they gave up per game last year (113.38 ppg!!), so credit clearly goes to Alan Black and his playing group.

 

Next 3 games:

Perry Lakes Hawks (a)

South West Slammers (h)

Mandurah Magic (a)

 

4. Mandurah Magic

The Magic have had a relatively easy schedule to start, as they have not travelled to Eaton, Kalgoorlie or Geraldton. Combine this with the fact they have had six home games and the Magic are where they should be in the standings. Mandurah have won their last four games claiming the scalps of the Lightning, Eagles (with Jervis), the Cougars and the Flames. Two of the three losses this season were narrow ones. The first was a 105-103 loss to Geraldton at home and the other was a 91-90 loss at home again, this time to the Hawks. For me they sit just above the Tigers, as their roster is just as talented, however they have had sterner tests throughout the first seven rounds compared to Willetton.

 

The Magic are still a well-balanced offensive team, and alongside the Wolves, have arguably the most even and consistent scoring five:

Mullenax 20.7ppg

Smith 19.6 ppg

Hafford 19.3 ppg

R. Della 17.3 ppg

Jackson 11.6 ppg

 

The next two weeks will be significant in getting a more accurate read on the Magic’s form.

 

Next 3 games:

Joondalup Wolves (a)

Willetton Tigers (h)

Lakeside Lightning (a)

 

3. South West Slammers

In my opinion, the league leaders are the third best team in the MSBL. They possess the leagues most potent offense, averaging 112.09 points per outing. Their strength of schedule so far has been kind to say the least, in which they have had seven home games. The Slammers four road games this season have been at East Perth, Stirling, Mandurah and the WABC. They have only played Geraldton and Joondalup in the top five. The meeting with Geraldton in the first game of the season resulted in a win, and their only loss was recorded at home to the Wolves in a game in which they were outclassed throughout.

 

Personally I don’t buy in to the “Of course they are on top, they have four Americans’” perception that I have heard voiced around various stadiums. Yes, they have four players born in the States, however the brand of basketball that Ty Harrelson has had the Slammers playing is the reason for their wonderful start. Having talent alone doesn’t get you wins. Ty has recruited players that fit perfectly into his system, and having a healthy Jordan Hickert coming off the bench and contributing has influenced the positive start. South Wests’ next three results will give plenty of clues for me to help decide whether they are indeed the best team in the league.

 

Next 3 games:

Willetton Tigers (a)

Geraldton Buccaneers (a)

Perth Redbacks (a)

 

2. Joondalup Wolves

I have the Wolfpack just ahead of the Slammers right now for two clear reasons. One, the Wolves experienced a more tricky start to the season as far as the quality of opponents played. Two, the Round 5 meeting in Eaton was a convincing win for the Wolves. Joondalup outscored a virtually full strength Slammers outfit in every quarter, which saw seven Joondalup players score in double figures. Oh, and did I mention that Seb Salinas did not play in this game?

 

They are stacked in the frontcourt, and Joel Questel and Ben Ironmonger are playing excellent ball at the point guard position. Kevin Davis is the best shot blocker statistically in the competition (4 bpg!!) and his debut against the Tigers was purely astounding: 20 points, 12 rebounds, 10 blocks and 5 assists in just over 26 mins!!

 

The return of Brad Robbins doesn’t add extra scoring or polish to what is already a formidable offensive team, however his toughness and experience of winning both an NBL and SBL title is unique. The recent overtime loss to the surprising Cougars may well be a blessing for the Wolves, as they regained their hunger in an emphatic 123-82 demolition of the Kalamunda Eastern Suns last Friday. Their remaining schedule is kind as well.

 

Next 3 games:

Mandurah Magic (h)

Rockingham Flames (a)

Perry Lakes Hawks (h)

 

1. Geraldton Buccaneers

The runners up in 2014 haven’t missed a beat since the narrow loss on the road to the Slammers in their first game of 2015. They are on a nine game winning streak that includes away victories in Mandurah, Rockingham and Joondalup, and a 24 point win over the Tigers at home. The most impressive sign is that the recent 18-point win over the Wolves came the night after beating the Flames in Rockingham. Scary signs also for the other thirteen clubs is a reminder that Geraldton claimed the minor premiership last season with a 9-4 home record. So far this season at Active West Stadium they are 4-0. The acid test will be in two weeks time when the South West Slammers travel upstate in what could be a top of the table blockbuster.

 

Lewis (28ppg) Cook (19.6ppg) and Ralph (15.6ppg) are all offensive threats, but the addition of Quincy Hankins –Cole has had a huge impact on the Buccs not just scoring (18.9ppg) but with his rebounding at both ends (10.9 rpg), and overall energy he brings to the line-up is vital. His signing was a shrewd one by Mark Heron, who in his second season as a head coach. It has been fantastic seeing Daniel Thomas back playing on the court. ‘DT’ missed the majority of last season in Mandurah with an Achilles injury, and this season he has been a valuable addition, and he is putting up respectable numbers.

 

Next 3 games:

East Perth Eagles (h)

South West Slammers (h)

Stirling Senators (a)

 

*All statistical information used in this article has been obtained from the ‘Fox Sports Pulse’ SBL Website, which can be found at: http://www.sbl.asn.au

 

There you have it. My first edition of the ‘MSBL Pecking Order’. I will revise my selections at the conclusion of Round 10.

I understand people will agree or disagree with any or all of my selections, but that’s what makes the game of basketball so great, it is the open conversation and wide range of differing opinions that result from ranking teams during a season.

Just before I sign off, I would like to thank all the people involved within the SBL and 98five for allowing me the opportunity to broadcast ‘SBL Slam’ and to write for the SBL website. Basketball is a game that I consider to have a constructive connection with family, friends and the community, and the partnership struck with 98five is really positive. The station clearly prides itself on involving family and the community, and I am really excited and proud to be a part of the new show this year.

Thanks for the wonderful support, enjoy the weekends games!

Matt Cecins

‘SBL Slam’: Airing Monday Evenings 9-10 pm on 98five Sonshine FM

http://www.98five.com/shows/other-shows/sblslam/

Follow Matt on Twitter @matt_cecins

Photo by Deprimo Photography