Forestville Eagles (12-6, 3rd) v Woodville Warriors (15-3, 2nd)
Saturday August 24, 8.15pm at Wayville
Officials: N Wieland & N Durant

*Fast fact 1: In the Warriors’ last finals series in 2005, they overturned a Semi Final loss to Forestville by winning the Grand Final two weeks later!

*Fast fact 2: The Eagles have not played the same club in the Qualifying and Preliminary Finals since 2009, when Norwood’s Andrew Webber hit three free throws to send the game into overtime. The Eagles lost by four points!

*Fast fact 3: The Eagles have not lost a final at Wayville in the last eight seasons!

Head-to-head      Last week
R8:  Woodville def Forestville 83-67  SF2: Forestville def by West 63-66
R17:  Woodville def Forestville 81-75  SF1: Woodville def Centrals 72-61
QF:  Forestville def Woodville 89-63

The Forestville Eagles will be out to prove their Qualifying Final demolition of Woodville was no fluke in this Saturday’s Preliminary Final.

Behind 27 points from Adam Doyle, the Eagles were 26 point victors over a side they had failed to beat in the regular season. The Eagles’ dramatic three point loss to West, coupled with the Warriors’ settling 11 point triumph over Centrals, means the two teams will meet again to battle for a spot in the Grand Final. The winner will face the Bearcats.

With games of 27, 18 and 21 points, Darren Ng is the man the Eagles need to shut down. But while Ng has been good against the Eagles, fellow Woollacott Medal candidate Aaron Wyatt has not.

Wyatt did have 19 points in the match at Wayville in Round 17, but has suffered from foul trouble in the two games at St Clair and put up a combined total of 13 points. The Warriors need their star import to fire if they are to be that side that makes the most of every finals appearance.

Luke Stanbridge and Steve Pilkington were influential and efficient in both regular season matches, but neither had an impact two weeks ago.

Contrastingly, the Eagles had a number of players with improved numbers in their latest win over the Warriors. Jake Rios (18 points, 4/5 3FG), Neil Mottram (14 points, 11 rebounds), Trent Fildes (14 points, 9 rebounds) and Brad Gerlach (9 assists, 9 rebounds, 7 points) all made significant contributions in the Qualifying Final.

All four had more efficient numbers than in the Round 17 loss, while only Gerlach played a significant portion of the Round 8 loss.

In both regular season matches, the Warriors shot the ball much better than the Eagles and absolutely dominated both backboards, holding a +13 edge in offensive rebounds and a+24 advantage at the other end. In the Qualifying Final, it was a different story.

The Eagles shot 56 per cent from the field in the Qualifying Final, compared to 34 per cent from the Warriors. They also outrebounded the Warriors 39-27.

These numbers suggest that shooting percentage and rebounding is the key to victory. Who the better team is in these categories cannot simply be judged by one game, especially given the results of these teams in their respective Semi Finals. The Warriors got back to owning the field goal percentage and rebounding categories against Centrals, while the Eagles were worse than West in both of those areas.

Was the Qualifying Final a once off, or have the Eagles been saving themselves for the finals? The question will be answered at Wayville on Saturday.

 
Sturt Sabres (13-5, 2nd) v North Adelaide Rockets (13-5, 3rd)
Saturday August 24, 6.30pm at Pasadena
Officials: V Devlin & M Dyson

*Fast fact 1: The Rockets have lost their last three finals against the Sabres by an average of 21.3 points!

*Fast fact 2: The Sabres and Rockets have not met in a Preliminary Final since 2005; the Rockets winning on that occasion!

*Fast fact 3: The last Preliminary Final victor not to win the premiership was the Rockets 08 side, who lost to Sturt in the Grand Final!

Head-to-head      Last week
R3:  Sturt def North 65-61    SF2: Sturt def by Norwood 47-75
R12:  Sturt def North 62-50    SF1: North def Forestville 79-66
QF:  Sturt def North 82-60

The North Adelaide Rockets will be hoping for a first win in four matches against Sturt this season to push them through to a second straight Grand Final against Norwood.

The Rockets’ average losing margin against the Sabres this season is 12.7 points, with the Qualifying Final scoreline of 60-82 the most lopsided of the three contests. The Rockets get another crack at the blues following their 13 point win against the Eagles in the First Semi Final. The Sabres suffered a comprehensive 28 point loss to Norwood in the Second Semi Final, meaning they missed out on a chance to go straight through to the Grand Final.

Last week against the Eagles, Jo Hill (21 points, 11 rebounds) and Jamie-Lee Peris (20 points, 9 rebounds) led the team in scoring and rebounding, as they have done in most matches this season. Neither have had a huge impact against the Sabres. Hill is averaging 12.3 ppg and 5.7 rpg in the series; Peris 8.7 and 6.7.

This season, the Sabres have six players averaging at least 8 ppg – Hannah Bowley, Amy Shaw, Molly Lewis, Hannah Richards, Aneeka Smith and Kate Gladstone.

The Sabres’ multitude of offensive sources has carried over into their games against the Rockets. The Sabres had four double digit scorers to the Rockets’ two in Round 3; three to zero in Round 12; and four to one in the Qualifying Final.

In the Qualifying Final, Jessica McPhail got under the Rockets’ guard to score 14 points, after averaging only 5.5 ppg in the regular season. Not everyone can be stopped on the same night, so from a Rockets point of view, it is crucial to stop whoever is likely to be the most dangerous threat.

The Rockets’ 33 per cent shooting in the Qualifying Final is the best they have shot in three games against the Sabres this season. The Sabres have shot 42, 33 and 53 per cent.

The Sabres are actually -2 against the Rockets in rebounding this year, but their defence as a whole has been much stronger. They also forced 26 turnovers in the Qualifying Final, and scored 24 points to 15 from downtown, despite attempting six less three point shots.

Norwood’s big win over the Sabres last week illustrates the monumental gap between first and second, but the Sabres have had the better of the Rockets so far this year and thus will be confident of bouncing back. 22 points is a big gap to bridge, but as has been shown before, it is not impossible.