Forestville Eagles (13-5, 2nd) v North Adelaide Rockets (13-5, 3rd)
Saturday August 11, 6.30pm at Wayville

The North Adelaide Rockets have the odds stacked against them ahead of their Qualifying Final clash with the Forestville Eagles at Wayville on Saturday.

The prize on offer for the victor is a trip to Pasadena to face Minor Premiers Sturt in the Second Semi Final. The loser will host the winner of West Adelaide v Norwood in the First Semi Final.

The Rockets have not won a final since the 2007 Grand Final. They have lost their last five post-season matches by an average of 14 points, including a 76-86 setback against the Eagles in the 2010 Elimination Final. Last year, they were also bundled out in the first round, going down 61-86 against West Adelaide.

In addition, the Rockets have not beaten the Eagles this season. In Round 7, they were defeated 73-91 at Wayville. The margin was just seven points at half-time, before a 21-8 third period from the Eagles put the Rockets away for good.

The Eagles had a wide range of scorers, led by Trent Fildes with 16 points. Rashad Tucker had 13 points and 17 rebounds, while Majok Deng registered 11 points and 9 rebounds. The Rockets’ Brandon Brine (20 points, 10 rebounds), Josh Bond (17 points, 8 rebounds) and Pero Vasilijevic (17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists) were the leading scorers on the night, but they did not get enough support from the remainder of the team.

The Eagles’ victory came largely as a result of a massive edge on the glass. The Eagles outrebounded the Rockets 59-41, including a 22-10 differential at the offensive end. The Eagles also took better care of the ball, as evidenced by an 11-17 turnover count.

In Round 16, the Eagles completed their first regular season sweep of the Rockets since 2008 with a cagey 67-59 victory. Neil Mottram had 16 points and 10 rebounds for the Eagles, while Tucker and Adam Doyle also chipped in with double-doubles. Luke Mapunda was outstanding for the Rockets with 24 points and 10 rebounds, but Vasilijevic was well-held, scoring just 9 points, albeit grabbing a game-high 13 boards.

This time, the Rockets only conceded two extra rebounds and turnovers. However, the Eagles had a +8 edge at the foul-line, ironically the game’s final margin. The Rockets made the same number of field goals as the Eagles, despite four extra attempts.

Both teams finished the season with a 13-5 win-loss record. The Rockets have been as good away (7-2) as the Eagles have been at home.

The Eagles had won eight straight prior to a 75-77 loss to Norwood at Mars last week. A win there would have seen them take the Minor Premiership at Sturt’s expense. The Eagles put themselves on the back foot early with a 16-30 first quarter. Tucker (20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists) and Brad Sullivan (19 points, 5 rebounds) were the Eagles’ top scorers.

The Rockets have won nine of 12 since their Round 7 loss to the Eagles. That includes wins over Centrals and South in the last two weeks. Against South, Mapunda had 21 points and 7 rebounds, while Vasilijevic scored 18 with 14 rebounds.

Although a loss should not mean panic for either side, a win would be a huge momentum boost for the rest of the postseason. Although the score starts at 0-0, it’s amazing how history can play with the mind at the worst possible time. Therefore, the Eagles’ extra experience at winning when it matters most should help them see this one through.

By James Woite