ONLY one thing is certain regarding finals as we head into the final home and away game - Geelong will finish on top of the ladder.
Every other ladder position - two through eight - can change depending on this weekend’s results in what shapes as a dramatic conclusion to the home and away season.
And, it’s not only those clubs currently in the eight that are involved.
Northern Blues and North Ballarat, ninth and tenth respectively on the ladder, are still in the mix for finals if results fall their way.
Here is a look at some of the crucial clashes this weekend and how the outcomes of each game will shape the final eight, and who will play in the Peter Jackson VFL Legendairy Finals Series.
CRUCIAL CLASHES
ESSENDON (8th, 8-9, 109%) v NORTH BALLARAT (10th, 8-9, 102%)
RIPPING game between two clubs who have got their mojo back in the second half of the season. The equation for both Essendon and North Ballarat is simple – it’s a must win game. The loser knows that its season is over. Despite all the controversy swirling around Windy Hill, the VFL Bombers have rallied with five wins from its past six games while North Ballarat has won six of its past nine to revive a season that appeared buried.
Best Case Scenario - Essendon: Essendon controls its own destiny. A win will go a long way to ensuring that the VFL Bombers will play finals in its expansion season. The only thing that may cost them is if Northern Blues defeat Williamstown, plus Collingwood and Port Melbourne win, then the Blues might overtake them on percentage – currently less that 2% difference.
Worst Case Scenario - Essendon: If it loses then its season is over as North Ballarat and possibly Northern Blues will leapfrog them.
Best Case Scenario - North Ballarat: Victory will definitely help its cause, but its finals participation is still dependent on other results. North Ballarat must win then hope that Collingwood, Port Melbourne and Northern Blues all lose. If that scenario plays out then North Ballarat would move to seventh. Should Collingwood and Port Melbourne win and Northern Blues lose and the Roosters win they would finish eighth. Should North Ballarat win, but Collingwood, Port Melbourne and Northern Blues all win it would leave the Roosters ninth.
Worst Case Scenario - North Ballarat: Defeat will end its final’s aspirations.
COLLINGWOOD (6th, 9-8, 105%) v WERRIBEE (5th, 10-7, 115%)
ANOTHER enthralling match, this time at Victoria Park. While Werribee can’t climb any higher than fifth given the percentage gulf between the VFL Tigers and Williamstown, Collingwood must win to lock away its finals participation. The VFL Magpies, one of the big improvers of the season, has endured a challenging home stretch, but put itself in the position to play finals with its convincing win against a staggering Sandringham. Werribee, with four wins from its past six games, is building moment at the right time. When the clubs met in Round 2 at Avalon Airport Oval, Werribee emerged victorious by eight points.
Best Case Scenario - Collingwood: Victory will see Collingwood finish sixth and return to the finals for the first time since 2010.The Magpies can lose and still make the finals if Port Melbourne is defeated by Coburg.
Worst Case Scenario - Collingwood: Collingwood will drop out of the finals if it loses and Port Melbourne, Essendon and Northern Blues all win. The VFL Magpies could also drop out if Port Melbourne and Northern Blues win and North Ballarat defeat Essendon. If the latter scenario happens percentage will decide whether Collingwood or North Ballarat make the final spot in the eighth. Currently, Collingwood owns a 3.26 percentage point break over North Ballarat, but has inferior percentage to Essendon and Northern Blues.
Best Case Scenario - Werribee: The VFL Tigers will remain fifth, but enter the finals on a three game winning roll, a nice confidence booster before its Elimination Final.
Worst Case Scenario – Werribee: Defeat by Collingwood will provide unwanted angst for Werribee on the eve of the finals while it will not alter its finishing ladder position.
WILLIAMSTOWN (4th , 11-6, 129.3%) v NORTHERN BLUES (9th, 8-9, 107%)
BOTH clubs have much to play for, for differing reasons. While Williamstown is secure in fourth place – it boasts a game plus a massive percentage break over fifth-placed Werribee – victory plus a Box Hill Hawks win could seem them climb to third. And, that would mean they dodge playing Geelong in the Qualifying Final. Northern Blues face a more cut throat scenario. It must win and then rely on results going its way to force its way into the eight.
Best Case Scenario : Williamstown – The Seagulls win and Box Hill Hawks defeat Casey Scorpions. Such a scenario would see Williamstown climb to third as it already owns a better percentage, albeit marginal, over the Scorpions.
Worst Case Scenario: Williamstown – A win by Northern Blues will consign Williamstown to fourth and the unenviable task of playing Geelong in the Qualifying Final. The Seagulls will also finish fourth even if they win and so does Casey Scorpions. While that outcome would leave both Box Hill Hawks and Williamstown on the same points, the VFL Hawks boast a far better percentage.
Best Case Scenario - Northern: The VFL Blues need to win and hope that either Coburg can upset Port Melbourne or North Ballarat defeats Essendon. If Port Melbourne and Essendon win then Northern Blues would need to need to inflict a sizable win against Williamstown to make up the percentage difference that Essendon currently holds over it.
Worst Case Scenario – Northern: A win by Williamstown will end Northern Blues season.
BOX HILL HAWKS (2nd, 12-5, 138%) v CASEY SCORPIONS (3rd, 12-5, 129.2%)
WHILE both Box Hill Hawks and Casey Scorpions can’t fall out of the top four the result of this match still has huge ramifications. At stake is an all-important home final and if the results fall a certain way these two clubs could square off again in a Qualifying Final. Earlier in the season, Box Hill Hawks emerged with a 10-goal win after they travelled to Casey.
Best Case Scenario : Box Hill Hawks: Victory will secure second spot for the VFL Hawks and its best home and away result since 2003 when it won 14 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Box Hill Hawks: A loss would see the club slip to third and with it any chance of hosting a Qualifying Final.
Best Case Scenario - Casey: The Scorpions would claim second with a win as well as putting itself in position to host a Qualifying Final.
Worst Case Scenario - Casey: Defeat coupled with a Williamstown win would see Casey slip to fourth and have to face up to Geelong in the Qualifying Final.
COBURG TIGERS (12th, 6-11, 77%) v PORT MELBOURNE (7th, 8-8-1, 99.9%)
PORT Melbourne faces a scenario few would have thought imaginable two months ago - a must win game in the final home and away season match to seize a final’s berth. But, the Borough finds itself in such a precarious situation after dropping six of its past eight games. Port Melbourne has fluctuated from outstanding as it was last week in its six-point defeat against ladder leader Geelong to woeful as it was the previous week against Werribee. Coburg Tigers season has never scaled to any great heights as it extends to five the number of successive seasons it has missed the finals.
Best Case Scenario - Coburg Tigers: Victory will close its last game with Richmond as its affiliate on a positive note, albeit one that apart from a Grand Final appearance in 2007 never rose to expectations.
Worst Case Scenario - : Coburg Tigers: Defeat will consign Coburg Tigers to 12th or 13th depending on the result of the Frankston/Sandringham match.
Best Case Scenario - Port Melbourne: Success will mean that Port Melbourne will again play finals - the sixth successive time it has done so under Gary Ayres coaching. If Port wins and Collingwood lose the Borough would move to sixth on the ladder.
Worst Case Scenario - Port Melbourne: Defeat could mean that Port will miss the finals for the first time since 2006 when it finished last. If the Borough loses it needs arch enemy Williamstown to do it a favor by defeating Northern Blues so it can remain in the eight. If either Essendon or North Ballarat wins as well as the VFL Blues then the curtain will come down on Port Melbourne’s season.
Last Modified on 21/08/2013 13:04