ROUND 16 PREVIEW
By Chris Weaver
Saturday, 1 August
Geelong (7-6) v Casey Scorpions (9-5)
Last Time: Round 8, 2009 at Casey Fields – Casey Scorpions 16.15 (111) def Geelong 11.9 (75)
Skilled Stadium, 10.40 am
Two of the competition’s form sides meet with a potential top four finish on the line.
Geelong’s recent strong performances combined with a favourable fixture suggest that they are a danger side, their younger AFL listed Cats benefitting from a solid season.
Their tall defenders Tom Gillies and Dan McKenna do not have to worry about either Brad Miller or Michael Newton, instead concentrating on the solid Ben Waite and aging Russell Robertson.
Much wider attention will focus on ‘Robbo’, whose belaboured performance against the Coburg Tigers suggested that this will be his final season.
He will battle for the headlines along with Brad Ottens, who makes a long awaited return to footy after rupturing a posterior cruciate ligament on 4 April in an AFL game at this venue.
The week off could be to Geelong’s detriment, but their direct style at home should see them over the line in a well-matched game.
Tip: Geelong by 10 points
North Ballarat (9-4) v Williamstown (11-3)
Last Time: Round 8, 2009 at Burbank Oval – North Ballarat 14.16 (100) def Williamstown 15.8 (98)
Eureka Stadium, 1.10 pm (ABC TV)
These are testing times for the Roosters, who have now lost their past three matches.
Fit and firing before their second bye, North Ballarat last week lost at home to a Werribee side unable to beat lowly Frankston the week before.
Brett Goodes was suspended this week for one game on a striking charge, while Tristan Cartledge returns to the side.
His omission last week came somewhat as a shock to this observer, who had been impressed by his contesting in ruck and at ground level against the Northern Bullants.
He replaces the injured Orren Stephenson, a massive loss for a side that benefits from the ‘Big O’s’ physicality at the stoppages.
However things are not much rosier at Williamstown, whose mediocre performance at Sandringham saw them defeated by 26 points.
Matthew Little is still recovering from a quad injury, requiring Dean Galea to repeat his impressive recent showings.
It is time too for Jarrad Grant to live up to his billing, the number five pick in the 2007 National Draft needing to provide a contest for the Seagulls across centre half-forward.
Tip: North Ballarat by 14 points
Coburg Tigers (6-8) v Box Hill Hawks (8-6)
Last Time: Round 3, 2009 at Box Hill City Oval – Box Hill Hawks 14.13 (97) def Coburg Tigers 12.6 (78)
ABD Group Stadium, 2.00 pm (Casey Radio 3SER, 97.7 FM)
Much discussion this week has centred on the future of the Coburg club.
It was confirmed this week that the Burgers will start playing matches at Craigieburn in 2010, splitting home fixtures between the new Richmond summer training venue and Coburg’s home since joining the VFA/VFL in 1925.
Matthew Richardson is set to make a rare outing for Coburg, having recovered from an operation to repair a hamstring tendon.
His selection gives the Burgers an astonishingly tall forward line, also boasting Jay Schulz, Adam Pattison and Troy Simmonds.
They will only be properly utilised though if Coburg stop overusing the footy through the centre, a habit presumably brought on by the unwillingness of a plodding on-ball brigade to break the lines.
The Stangas were reportedly unrelenting in their pressure on the ball carrier against Port Melbourne, forcing the Borough midfielders into numerous costly errors.
On a ground almost identical in dimension to their own, Box Hill’s runners such as Sam Gibson and Adem Yze should find space in which to use the footy proficiently.
Tip: Box Hill Hawks by 19 points
Sunday, 2 August
Frankston (2-11) v Port Melbourne (9-4)
Last Time: Round 6, 2009 at TEAC Oval – Port Melbourne 16.9 (105) def Frankston 12.12 (84)
Frankston Park, 2.00 pm
The battle of the two VFL stand-alone sides generally results in victory for the home team.
Perhaps much of the reason for the poor record of the travelling side in these fixtures falls on the issue of space, as they play at very differently shaped venues.
Long and narrow, Frankston Park has been a graveyard for many sides that are too indirect in their route to goal.
Coming off a disappointing loss at Box Hill, the Borough know that a top four spot is on the line.
Expect to see John Baird rotated through midfield and centre half-back, with Toby Pinwill to do his fair share of bullocking work on ball.
Frankston enter without a recognised ruckman, the bulky Ben Crowe and lanky Trent Shinners instead likely to share the tap work.
The bye came at a bad time for the Dolphins, as they had just defeated Werribee in an encouraging display.
Height, experience and the chance to cement a top four place should see Port Melbourne score a rare win at Frankston.
Tip: Port Melbourne by 17 points
Northern Bullants (8-5) v Collingwood (7-6)
Last Time: Round 8, 2009 at Visy Park – Collingwood 16.8 (104) def Northern Bullants 7.12 (54)
NAB Oval, 2.00 pm (Casey Radio 3SER, 97.7 FM)
If you want proof of the Bullants’ schizophrenic form-line, then you only need to look at their last meeting with the Pies.
Lacking a key forward, the Bullants’ lack of firepower resulted in Collingwood repeatedly rebounding from half-back to defeat a side then placed in second position.
Cameron Cloke was anonymous that day, yet has now found his feet at full-forward with eleven goals in the past fortnight.
Brad Fisher joins him in attack, the rangy flanker one of many victims of Carlton’s sloppy skills against Collingwood last Friday night.
With Jarrod Bannister the only tall runner missing from the Bullants’ side, David Teague’s men should be too quick in transition for Collingwood.
The Magpies should be fresh from their weekend off, an increasingly settled side looking to overcome the dispiriting loss against the Casey Scorpions at the unusual surrounds of Sandringham.
They have strength and height up forward, but perhaps lack the pace through the middle to make the Bullants pay at the stoppages.
Tip: Northern Bullants by 28 points
Bendigo Bombers (0-13) v Sandringham (6-7)
Last Time: Round 8, 2009 at Trevor Barker Beach Oval – Sandringham 20.16 (136) def Bendigo Bombers 3.6 (24)
Windy Hill, 2.00 pm (livevfl.com.au)
After a while it becomes difficult to find the positives in a side that has been winless for more than twelve months.
Bendigo capitulated in the last term against the Bullants, a dispirited side finding itself toyed with by a vastly superior opponent.
A mounting injury toll at Essendon ensures that four or five AFL listed players are set to travel to Western Australia, further reducing the class of a side already devoid of skilful exponents of the footy.
Sandringham’s fighting performance against Williamstown was a victory for a midfield more rugged than has previously been the case in 2009.
Peter Summers has received effective support in recent weeks from Nick Heyne and Alistair Smith, two young St Kilda players whose ambition and hunger have resulted in the Zebras controlling the clearances more effectively.
Nick Sautner sits on 62 goals for the season and with regular supply from the middle, could be in for a big day.
Tip: Sandringham by 53 points
Bye – Werribee Tigers