Photo: Anthony Caffery Photography

As we enter the home straight of the 2020 NPL1 season, the race to qualify for the top four spots is wide open. Current third-place incumbents Belconnen United lead a pack of four teams separated by four points.

So which of the four teams left in the race for the NPL1 top four will cross the finish line and claim one of the coveted finals spots? We have crunched the numbers to figure out what result each club needs to ensure they end the season inside the top four.

Belconnen United
Current Position: 3rd (GD: 3)
Points: 10
VS: Tigers FC

The equation for Belconnen United is simple, win or draw this weekend and they play finals football. It is a battle of third vs fourth at AIS Grass Field 1 on Saturday afternoon, and whoever loses could fall out of the top four. United will be kicking themselves after conceding two goals in stoppage time to lose to Canberra Croatia last weekend when a win or draw would have almost ensured their finals status. If they do lose, they will have to rely on both Tuggeranong United and Canberra Olympic failing to win this weekend. 

Tigers FC
Current Position: 4th (GD: 4)
Points: 9
VS: Belconnen United 

After losing to Woden Weston at home last weekend, Tigers will now have to travel to AIS and grab all three points if they want to play finals in 2020. A win against Belconnen United will see them climb to 12 points, safe from the clutches of Tuggeranong United and Canberra Olympic. Lose, and they will have to rely on Canberra Croatia beating Tuggeranong United at Deakin Stadium and Woden Weston defeating Canberra Olympic at Melrose Synthetic. 

Tuggeranong United 
Current Position: 5th (GD: -5)
Points: 8
VS: Canberra Croatia  

After grabbing eight points from their last four matches, Tuggeranong will be hoping to make it 11 points from five matches when they face Canberra Croatia at Deakin Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Nothing but a win will do for Tuggies, who face their biggest challenge against undefeated Croatia at home. It is a big ask but Mitch Stevens will have his troops up for the challenge. 

Canberra Olympic
Current Position: 6th (GD: 1)
Points: 7
VS: Woden Weston 

Canberra Olympic find themselves in a tricky position in Round 7. To make finals, they need a solid 3+ goal win over Woden Weston and Tuggeranong United to not win. If one of those variables fails, they can wave goodbye to finals in 2020. If they win comfortably against Woden Weston, their superior goals for will see them overtake either Tigers or Belconnen, regardless of the result at AIS.