The Peter Jackson VFL home-and-away season has hit the point where ‘mathematical possibility’ becomes a buzz phrase.
Four rounds remain and 11 teams still have a realistic chance to fill the eight spots in September’s Legendairy finals series, while the race for positions in the top four – and a double chance come finals time – is also heating up.
Let’s take a look at the run home for the clubs in contention.
1st – WILLIAMSTOWN (11-3, 148.8%)
R17 vs Footscray (Burbank Oval)
R18 vs Casey Scorpions (Casey Fields)
R19 vs Werribee (Burbank Oval)
R20 vs Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval)
Williamstown could be facing Box Hill for the minor premiership in the final home-and-away round. A loss to the Hawks – who beat the Seagulls by 62 points at Burbank Oval in Round 10 – may not be catastrophic, as Willy is still in the box seat to finish in the top two and earn a home final. However, all four of its remaining matches are against fellow top-eight teams, so the Gulls will have certainly earned the privilege to host a team at Burbank Oval in week one of finals.
2nd – BOX HILL HAWKS (11-3, 145.5%)
R17 vs Casey Scorpions (Box Hill City Oval)
R18 vs Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
R19 vs Northern Blues (Preston City Oval)
R20 vs Williamstown (Box Hill City Oval)
Box Hill is a strong chance to be playing a qualifying final at Box Hill City Oval, a venue where it has only lost once in seven matches this season – by five points to Werribee in Round 4. The Hawks’ first encounter with Casey in 2015 is followed by two winnable games against teams outside the top eight, meaning the Round 20 clash with Williamstown could become a handy finals tune-up. The Hawks have only lost to Werribee (twice) and Collingwood this season, and might even avoid them in September if the Tigers and Pies don’t break into the top four.
3rd – SANDRINGHAM (10-4, 114.9%)
R17 vs Port Melbourne (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R18 vs Northern Blues (Ikon Park)
R19 vs Geelong (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R20 vs Casey Scorpions (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
A top-four finish is Sandringham’s for the taking. Casey is the only team currently in the top eight that the Zebras will face in the run home, and Sandy defeated the Scorpions by 35 points at Casey Fields in Round 4. Their relatively low percentage means the Zebs could be looking at a daunting trip to either Burbank Oval or Box Hill City Oval in the first week of finals, but a possible double chance – which would be their first since 2007 – will be handy in any case.
4th – FOOTSCRAY (9-5, 141.2%)
Rd 17 vs Williamstown (Burbank Oval)
Rd 18 vs Port Melbourne (VU Whitten Oval)
Rd 19 vs Essendon (Queen Elizabeth Oval – Bendigo)
Rd 20 vs Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval)
The run home isn’t overly kind for the defending premier, although a big percentage could end up being Footscray’s best friend. Last weekend’s victory over Essendon means a top-four spot is the Bulldogs’ to lose, but this round’s clash with the Seagulls – who won the teams’ first clash by 39 points at VU Whitten Oval in Round 8 – and the rematch with Essendon in Round 19 will be crucial in determining whether they stay there.
5th – ESSENDON (9-5, 120.6%)
R17 vs Werribee (Windy Hill)
R18 vs Frankston (Frankston Oval)
R19 vs Footscray (Queen Elizabeth Oval – Bendigo)
R20 vs Richmond (Windy Hill)
Essendon’s rematch with Footscray could decide which of the teams finishes in the top four. The Bombers would fancy their chances of winning their other three matches, having easily accounted for Frankston and Richmond previously this season and with Werribee travelling to Windy Hill this Sunday. The September implications of the Footscray clash will only add to its blockbuster nature under Friday night lights in Bendigo.
6th – WERRIBEE (9-6, 115.1%)
Rd 17 vs Essendon (Windy Hill)
Rd 18 – BYE
Rd 19 vs Williamstown (Burbank Oval)
Rd 20 vs Footscray (Avalon Airport Oval)
Werribee will have one eye nervously looking over its shoulder given its tough final three matches. They may be three wins and percentage ahead of Port Melbourne (9th) and Geelong (10th), but the Tigers’ remaining opponents are all above them on the ladder – despite having defeated Rd 19 opponent Williamstown by two points at Avalon Airport Oval in Round 5. A single win will be enough, but can Werribee conjure one? The trip to Windy Hill this weekend will be important on multiple levels, as the Tigers are still in top-four contention as well.
7th – COLLINGWOOD (9-5, 100.1%)
Rd 17 vs Northern Blues (MCG)
Rd 18 vs North Ballarat (Victoria Park)
Rd 19 vs Richmond (Victoria Park)
Rd 20 vs Port Melbourne (Victoria Park)
Collingwood has possibly the kindest run home of any of the teams in finals contention. All four matches are against clubs currently outside the top eight and all of them are home games – including three at its Victoria Park fortress, where it hasn’t lost a home-and-away game since Round 11 last season. A low percentage means the Magpies may need to win every match to be in the picture for a top-four finish though.
8th – CASEY SCORPIONS (8-6, 116.3%)
Rd 17 vs Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval)
Rd 18 vs Williamstown (Casey Fields)
Rd 19 vs Coburg (Piranha Park)
Rd 20 vs Sandringham (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
Casey’s devilish run home means the Scorpions won’t be feeling safe about their place in the top eight. The club hasn’t been able to test itself against Box Hill or Williamstown this season and will know a lot more about where it stands after those matches. The Round 19 clash with Coburg will be vital, as Casey faces yet another top-four team in Sandringham the following week. A good percentage compared to Port Melbourne and Geelong means circumstances are still in its favour and one more win might be enough.
THE CHALLENGERS
It’ll be a difficult task for any of these three teams to make the finals, but with Casey’s tough run home, three wins from Port Melbourne or Geelong, or four wins from the in-form Coburg, could secure a spot in September. For that matter, Richmond (5-10, 89.4%) and North Ballarat (5-10, 84.1%) are not without mathematical hope, but have low percentages and a bye each still to come.
9th – PORT MELBOURNE (6-8, 94.1%)
Rd 17 vs Sandringham (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
Rd 18 vs Footscray (VU Whitten Oval)
Rd 19 vs Frankston (North Port Oval)
Rd 20 vs Collingwood (Victoria Park)
10th – GEELONG (6-8, 90.2%)
Rd 17 vs North Ballarat (Eureka Stadium)
Rd 18 vs Box Hill Hawks (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 19 vs Sandringham (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
Rd 20 vs Northern Blues (Simonds Stadium)
13th – COBURG (5-9, 79.5%)
Rd 17 vs Frankston (Frankston Oval)
Rd 18 vs Richmond (ME Bank Centre)
Rd 19 vs Casey Scorpions (Piranha Park)
Rd 20 vs North Ballarat (Eureka Stadium)
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Last Modified on 06/08/2015 14:00
