Grand Final (Saturday)- Manly-Warringah GIANTS vs Pennant Hills Demons at Blacktown International Sports Park
The stage is set for the biggest game on the AFL Sydney calendar- a second successive Grand Final between the two heavyweights of the competition.
From early on it was clear these two were destined for the final game of the year. Another epic duel is expected given the ground that Pennant Hills has caught up on the minor premiers and competition favourites.
Manly-Warringah have been superb this season in their second year in the Premier Division competition. They have lost one game all year and a win on Saturday would mean it is their second successive Premier Division premiership and fourth successive for their senior side (2012-13 Division One premiers).
Pennant Hills are an appropriate opponent having only lost three games this season- all of which were against their opponents on Saturday. Over the past two season they have lost five of their six Premier Division matches against the Northern Beaches outfit.
With this said, there are some possibly worrying aspects for the GIANTS. They have not played at Blacktown all season. Their last two matches have been at Henson Park and one could argue a poisoned chalice of winning the Major Semi Final is that they have only played two games in the last month.
While they have created opportunities in front of goal, they have been painfully inaccurate in the back half of the season and in particular in their last three games- kicking 37 goals and 57 behinds.
Their biggest strength as mentioned previously is their depth. They have the ability to attack all over the park. David Stroud and Gareth Benbow are great rebounders while Jack Lynch, Jordan Weir and Wils Brassil are under-rated with their ability to win one-on-one duels. All will need to work together against a dangerous Pennant Hills forward line which boasts prodigious goal sneaks Stephen Wray and Sam Zikman. Both have been somewhat below par this finals campaign.
A strength of Pennant Hills is their versatility. When their key forwards have been quiet, others bob up to fill the void. Tom Angel was an unlikely goal kicker with three majors against St George last weekend. Matt Carey and Ranga Ediriwickrama have noted goal scoring ability.
As always in big games, the midfield will play a vital role especially when goals are like gold- just look at their most recent clash where there were only seven for the game. You have to love Manly-Warringah’s young talent. Callum Johnston played a key role in the win over Pennant Hills a fortnight ago and Lachlan Kilpatrick will be gunning for back-to-back Podbury Medals on Saturday.
Pennant Hills have a hardened midfield with the likes of Ediriwickrama, Goodall, Dell’Aquila and Crisfield able to play lock down roles and also create clearance opportunities.
While I will mention Lloyd Shepherd below, the Pennant Hills defence has been underrated this finals campaign. Seb Parker is like a good red wine getting better with age. Both he and Ben Urwin have been constants in the best players in recent weeks deep in defence.
The GIANTS are methodical with their ball use and a key KPI for them is their team defence. When not in attack, their pressure is fanatical and they would arguably boast the best tackling numbers in the competition. James Brain has been a great addition in this area coming from an elite set-up in the SANFL. It must have been interesting seeing him and brother, Levi growing up under the eye of AFL Sydney coach of the year, Leigh Brain. There would have been a few bruises over the years and a few footballs kicked around during their childhood years.
You can’t do a big game preview without mentioning former Phelan Medallist, Tyrone Armitage and reigning club best and fairest, Anthony Robertson. Both are pivotal players for Manly-Warringah across half-forward and are small sub-plots in their own right. Armitage racked up the miles last Sunday in Melbourne in the VFL Young Guns clash, while Robertson has only played three quarters in Division Two since returning from a broken leg and if selected, will be somewhat underdone.
The Injury Ward
Both sides have been somewhat affected by injury leading into the match. Manly-Warringah have battled injuries all year with upward of ten players from their senior squad sidelined or battling injury. Biggest of these names is Harrison Koch who is unlikely to play with a shoulder injury. A name that hasn’t been mentioned much is Nathan Bosschieter (hamstring) who has been sidelined for some weeks. Daniel Dickerson has been leading the ruck in the absence of Jacob Graham.
Pennant Hills will be sweating on the fitness of two of their top-tier players. Reigning club best and fairest, Matthew Thomas is rated a 50-50 chance, while James Dunn is unlikely to run out for the Demons.
Key Match-Ups
Lloyd Shepherd (PH) vs Brayden Fowler (MW)- This is the battle between the best defender and best goal kicker in the league and deserves heavyweight billing in its own right. Shepherd restricted Fowler to one goal in their Semi Final clash, and kept Nick Ryan goalless in both their finals clashes. No more needs to be said about his defensive skills other to say he was named captain in the AFL Sydney Team of the Year. Fowler has kicked 81 goals from 18 games and was the Stan Milton Medallist by the length of the straight. The 22 year old is skilled in all components of the forward art and is boasting a new slick haircut suggesting he is up for a big one on Saturday.
Alex Goodall (PH) vs Connor Pettersson (MW)- While they might not line up on each other directly, these two will spend most of their time in the midfield and centre bounce duels. The duo were first and second respectively in the Phelan Medal count. Both are hard in-and-under, have great vision and disposal skills by hand and foot.
Recent Head-to-Head
Semi Final- Manly-Warringah 3.15-33 def Pennant Hills 4.6-30 at Henson Park
Round 12- Manly-Warringah 10.8-68 def Pennant Hills 8.10-58 at Ern Holmes Oval
Round 2- Manly-Warringah 20.9-129 def Pennant Hills 5.9-39 at Weldon Oval
Expert Panel Predictions
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Danny
Newsbreaker
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Matthew Graham
AFL Sydney Football Operations Manager
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Scott Burkinshaw
AFL Sydney Football Operations Coordinator
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Darren Simpson
AFL NSW/ACT State Football Operations Manager
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Jason Saddington
U18 NSW/ACT Head Coach
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Match Prediction
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Manly-Warringah by 7 points
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Pennant Hills by 3 points
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Manly-Warringah by 23 points
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Pennant Hills by 7 points
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Pennant Hills by 16 points
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Rod Podbury Medallist
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David Stroud (MW)
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Ranga Ediriwickrama (PH)
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James Brain (MW)
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Ranga Ediriwickrama (PH)
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Tim Wales (PH)
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Match Highlight
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Ranga Ediriwickrama dribbles home a superb goal from the left forward pocket
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Phelan Medal winner Alex Goodall’s goal after the siren to claim famous victory
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Manly-Warringah goal in the first minute of the game
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Fowler and Zikman go head-to-head in a shoot-out
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Stephen Wray’s 4 bounce running goal to ignite the Demons early in the first.
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Under 19 Division One Preview- North Shore Bombers vs St George Dragons
It is a clash between the top two sides of the regular season to decide the premier team in the Under 19 Division One competition at Blacktown on Saturday.
North Shore finished the regular season second one game behind the Dragons but were dominant against their opponents this Saturday a fortnight ago.
Both sides boast a number of AFL NSW/ACT Under 18 representatives that took part in the TAC Cup competition. Who better to ask than the head coach, Jason Saddington as to who he thinks will be the key players.
St George:
Kuiam Anu: Enigmatic forward/ruckman with the ability to light up the highlight reel. The hanger, the spectacular goal, the chase down tackle are all in his kit bag. With consistent impact on the game could be the match winner.
Simon McGrillen:Hard running midfielder who will continue fighting til the death. Capable of breaking through the congestion and driving the ball forward. Must get his hands on the footy for a St George win.
North Shore:
Zachary Fyffe: Dashing half back/forward capable of breaking the lines with his change of pace and acceleration. Represented NSW/ACT regularly in 2014 in TAC Cup and National Championships. A leader amongst the group likely to have a real impact on the outcome of the game.
Lachlan Hayres: Likely to be the hardest working player on the field with a great eye for the game. Great hands in tight and a strong defensive aspect to his game. With skill efficiency high will set up many North Shore scoring opportunities.
Danny’s Prediction: North Shore by 11 points
Division One- Balmain Tigers vs UTS Bats
There is no arguing this is a fitting conclusion for what has been a very competitive Division One season in 2014.
Balmain go into the match as favourites having accounted for the Bats in the Major Semi Final a fortnight ago thanks to a last-quarter burst. Credit goes to the key people in the club for being competitive this year moving down from Premier Division and re-branding the club from the Dockers to the Tigers.
They have some star players with top grade experience who could win the game off their own boot. Chris Bolt, Luke Jarjoura, Alex O’Dea and Brad Plug are all talented and will hold the key for the Tigers chances. Their experience will play a key role in the Tigers the game under the Grand Final furnace.
UTS are again in the big dance in this grade and twice accounted for Macquarie University to qualify for another shot at the Tigers. They are also a physical outfit which suggests this game will feature a lot of contested, in-tight duels.
There is great experience for the Bats which suggests they will not be overawed by the occasion. Phil Bredin and Luke Heffernan were the best for the Bats in their win last week, while Luke Trimboli and Mark Trewhella will also likely feature in best on ground calculations this weekend.
Danny’s Prediction: Balmain by 9 points
Under 19 Division Two- Moorebank Magpies vs Western Suburbs Magpies
Interestingly, the first match of the day will be fought out between two Magpies sides.
Western Suburbs overcame the disappointment of having their semi-final win over Moorebank overturned due to fielding an ineligible player, to easily defeat Penrith by 53 points last weekend.
Danny was happy he was spot on in naming Vasili Romanas as the potential match-winner for Western Suburbs last week as he had a blinder against the Rams. He will be the key man for Moorebank to shut down this week alongside Tom Kannan and Ben Polley. Polley is arguably the competitions best player and returning from injury, his impact early last week ensured the Magpies wouldn’t be troubled and he again will be vital wherever he lines up.
Having seen Moorebank earlier in the year, I can vouch for their talent.
James Bowman didn’t play against Wests a fortnight ago but the former League Best and Fairest in this grade is a gun and could change the tide if he happens to line up this weekend. Brad Wicken is a prodigious left-footer and has speed to burn up forward. Hayden Rapley has kicked 40 goals from his 13 games this year.
Danny’s Prediction: Western Suburbs by 19 points
Last Modified on 19/09/2014 08:07
