As we reach the final round of the regular season, is it a race between two for the AFL Sydney Premier Division title?
The State of Play
Both Manly-Warringah and Pennant Hills have been dominant this season, only dropping three games between them (two of those being Pennant Hills losing to the GIANTS). Form may suggest the next two in line being St George and Western Suburbs are falling away at the wrong end of the season.
The double chance is up for grabs between the Dragons and Magpies after both lost last weekend, and with only 4% between the two; they could easily change places.
The other likely change appears for fifth place with UNSW/ES favoured to displace Sydney University who face the ladder-topping GIANTS. Conversely, the Bulldogs have a very winnable match against Sydney Hills on Sunday afternoon and a win here will see them come from the clouds to take fifth if Sydney University go down.
Manly-Warringah vs Sydney University
Manly-Warringah will finish as minor premiers for the second year running in an amazing feat given this is only their second year in the Premier Division competition. Their approach to this match will be fascinating as they are set to have the weekend off. Will they go hard in a perfect pre-finals hit-out, or rest players with niggles; maybe a combination of both?
Sydney University, as noted above, are in a dogfight to finish fifth and can guarantee their own destiny by doing the improbable and beating Manly-Warringah on their own deck.
The Students were always a step behind Pennant Hills. They started poorly letting a hot Demons get a run of goals early and spent a lot of tickets closing the gap to 16 points at half-time. The coaching staff would be bemoaning how they turned the ball over in the back-half, as well as the ability of their opposition to score a lot of their goals from half-forward.
Olly Wetzlar and Evan Smith, alongside Ben Taggart, will have big jobs in kicking a winning score. Up the other end, Jacob Swarts (likely to play on Brayden Fowler) and skipper, Jack Caspersonn will lead the defensive half. Alex Dyson was best for the Students last week and generates pace through the middle.
The GIANTS smashed Campbelltown to the tune of 136 points last week. Levi Brain was a popular inclusion in the Team of the Week after a dominant display.
They create a lot of drive from half-back through the likes of Gareth Benbow and David Stroud. I am looking for Callum Johnston to have a big finals series- he is a talented junior who is a classy mover and looks more acquainted to senior football each week.
The Students may have more desire but class is permanent- and it should get the GIANTS home here.
Danny’s Prediction: Manly-Warringah by 11 points
Pennant Hills vs North Shore
Two traditional rivals face off with neither side likely to change places on the ladder- with Pennant Hills to finish second, and North Shore seventh.
It has been a season of woe for the Bombers, who only last year almost made it to the Preliminary Final- only to lose by six points to Pennant Hills.
There was a glimmer of hope though last weekend as they defeated St George (third) in their Annual Back to Bears Day at Gore Hill. It was evident what the return of a few key players can do to the Bombers, added to the extra motivation of performing in front of a parochial home crowd.
Selby Lee-Steere was superb for the Bombers, as was fellow big man Sam Jackson. Their spread of goal kickers was also impressive; an area they have definitely improved recently.
Pennant Hills are motoring along nicely and moved up a gear in their 35-point win against Sydney University.
The stars came to the surface with Tim Wales dominant in the middle, and Ranga Ediriwickrama and Matt Carey kicking eight goals between them in a dynamic performance.
This weekend also doubles as Carey’s 150th game with his beloved Demons.
There is definitely more for the Demons to play for ahead of another finals campaign but expect the Bombers to not give up without a fight.
Danny’s Prediction: Pennant Hills by 22 points
UTS vs Western Suburbs
It was a disappointing day last Saturday for Western Suburbs when they missed a golden chance in hindsight to seal the double chance, losing to UNSW/ES- a side they were expected to beat by most pundits.
They have simply lost their mojo lately as shown by their poor first half where they didn’t even manage to score a goal on the small Village Green deck.
Taylor Williamson played a virtuoso role with six goals, with most of these scored in the last quarter when the game was dead and buried.
They at the moment lack depth in the midfield and outside of Sands, Scown, Hudson, Round and Conway- who can lift the Magpies out of the mire?
Luckily for them, they should prevail against UTS who look like they have put the cue in the rack. They lost by 65 points to last-placed Sydney Hills in a disappointing showing.
Most of the attention for them turns now to their lower division sides, in particular their Division One outfit.
Danny’s Prediction: Western Suburbs by 40 points
Campbelltown vs St George
Question marks linger over whether St George can challenge the supremacy of the top two sides with finals around the corner.
Their loss to North Shore did nothing to dispel their detractors who say they lack depth across the ground.
Are there enough ball-winners in the midfield? Is there anyone able to kick a bag up forward? No doubt the Dragons are keeping the faith but they know they have some big ground to make if they are to make the Grand Final.
Jordan West continues his strong form in the ruck and should give his midfielders first supply on the weekend.
Campbelltown, like UTS, is the side that has faded most in the back-half of the season. They severely missed the input of their Papua New Guinea contingent who are representing their nation at the International Cup.
As such they only managed one goal against the GIANTS.
They will enjoy finishing the season at home but that will be the only luxury afforded to them by the Dragons, who will be looking to breathe fire instead of smoke this weekend.
Danny’s Prediction: St George by 41 points
Sydney Hills Eagles vs UNSW/ES
You would normally look at this game and think this clash on Sunday afternoon at Bruce Purser Reserve would be the least intriguing game of the weekend.
Instead all eyes could be on this AFL Sydney Match of the Week encounter if Sydney University lose on Saturday afternoon.
As noted previously, a win for UNSW/ES in the above scenario will see them leapfrog Sydney University into fifth and a likely Elimination Final against a side they conquered last week in Western Suburbs.
On the flipside, Sydney Hills could do a Houdini act and avoid the wooden spoon with a win at home.
They will be far from pushovers given they doubled UTS’ score last week. A number of fringe players came back to the Premier Division outfit with star ball-winner Jack Dimery best-on-ground last week.
UNSW/ES are one of the form sides of the back half of the season. Daniel Lynch’s game plan seems to have finally clicked with his side at the eleventh hour.
The extra motivation of Peter Kefalas’ last home game obviously shocked them into gear as they generated a match-winning lead going into half-time against the Magpies.
Throw in a star for the next decade in Hayden Nichols and the contested marking ability of Tim Cummins, and it would be no surprise if UNSW/ES not only make the finals, but manage to cause some damage.
Danny’s Prediction: UNSW/ES by 15 points
Last Modified on 22/08/2014 14:38
