As we enter the final round of the Peter Jackson VFL season, the door to the final eight has still not been closed, and the makeup of the top four will go right down to the wire.
Eighth spot
GEELONG 10th versus SANDRINGHAM 9th Skilled Stadium
SANDRINGHAM kept alive its flickering finals hopes alive with a three-point win against Collingwood last week. The Zebras’ hopes gained an added lift when Box Hill Hawks suffered a 101-point hiding from Williamstown, which saw its percentage dive by 6 percent. As a result, Sandringham remains in the finals race. For Sandringham to climb over the top of Box Hill Hawks and return to the finals for the first time since 2007 they must first defeat Geelong and hopefully do so by a convincing margin. An eight goal win by Sandringham coupled with a like-margin loss by Box Hill Hawks, which faces the unbeaten Port Melbourne, may be enough to give the Zebras the edge. But, they must defeat Geelong, who have been particularly good in the second half of the season, especially at Skilled Stadium. The Cats have won their past four at home, including a 128-point win against Casey Scorpions, and Sandringham has just won two games on the road this season.
PORT MELBOURNE 1st versus BOX HILL, 8th, North Port Oval
PORT Melbourne will match the feat accomplished by seven other clubs stretching back to 1893 if it can defeat Box Hill Hawks to extend its winning streak to 18 and go through the home and away season undefeated. The Borough have already secured top spot and with it a home final in the first week of the finals. After emerging triumphant from two testing encounters against Williamstown and Northern Bullants in the past two rounds, Port Melbourne will be ready for anything and everything the Box Hill Hawks throw at them. The VFL Hawks must erase from its minds its dreadful showing last week against Williamstown, its worst performance from the year, and tackle the match with renewed enthusiasm. What the drubbing had the effect of doing was erode Box Hill Hawks percentage by 6 percent and leave them vulnerable. While it will be keen to become the first club to claim the scalp of Port Melbourne, Box Hill Hawks hierarchy will be keeping a close eye on what’s happening in the Geelong/Sandringham match and they will gain a good idea of what the situation facing them will be as that match starts more than two hours before their game starts.
Battle for the double chance
CASEY SCORPIONS 4th versus NORTHERN BULLANTS 6th Casey Fields
THE result of this match will determine which club finishes fourth and it’s not solely down to the combatants at Casey Fields. Such are the machinations of the final home and away round that the Scorpions, Bullants and Werribee can all finish fourth depending on the results. Casey Scorpions have the easiest equation of all three clubs – if they defeat the Ants then it will extinguish the debate as to who will finish fourth. It will be Casey. Victory will seal the Scorpions fourth spot and give them the coveted double chance. Casey boasts a win, albeit by nine points, against Northern Bullants earlier in the season, but it’s hard to gain a read on their form over the past five rounds. Casey has won by 77-points, lost by 128-points, won by 61-points, lost against Coburg Tigers by 15-points then defeated Werribee by 44-points. Northern Bullants have struggled not only for consistency, but wins in the second half of the season. They have lost three of their past four games and enter this must win game having coughing up a four goal first quarter lead against Port Melbourne. After quarter-time, Port outscored the Ants 17.10 to 8.7. But, if Northern Bullants can produce its best and defeat Casey and North Ballarat defeats Werribee they will climb to fourth.
NORTH BALLARAT 3rd versus WERRIBEE TIGERS 5th Eureka Stadium
REIGNING premiers North Ballarat look every bit as potent as they have in recent years and that spells trouble for Werribee, which must win if it’s to climb back into the top four. Werribee slipped to fifth when Casey Scorpions defeated them last week. Victory would have ensured them a top four spot, a far easier launching pad for a shot at the flag than virtually elimination finals every week. Even if Werribee can topple North Ballarat, which has won its past seven games, the Tigers would need Northern Bullants to do them a favour by defeating Casey Scorpions. While the trip to Eureka Stadium is loathed by all clubs, what will give Werribee some hope is that the Roosters have dropped three games at home this season. North Ballarat looks certain to finish third even if they win as they would need Frankston to upset Williamstown to fly above the Seagulls.
Other games
BENDIGO BOMBERS 7th versus COBURG TIGERS 11th QE Oval
Bendigo Bombers can move up the ladder if it wins against Coburg Tigers, but just how far they can climb will rest on the results of other games. The VFL Bombers can’t gain a top four spot and it’s unlikely they can climb as high as fifth, but for that to happen they would need to post a 10-goal plus win against Coburg Tigers and then hope that both Werribee and Northern Bullants suffer similar 10-goal defeats. That all sounds good in theory, but it should be noted that Coburg Tigers scored a 64-point win against Bendigo Bombers as recent as round 15. Coburg Tigers’ form has fluctuated as wildly as the Dow Jones Index as they were very good in defeating Casey Scorpions by 15-points in round 20 then lost for the second time this season to cellar-dweller Frankston. The comfort, if you can call it that, is that Bendigo Bombers can’t fall any lower than seventh.
FRANKSTON, 13th versus WILLIAMSTOWN 2nd Frankston Oval
WHILE Frankston is coming off just its second win for the season it is hard to see the Dolphins ending the season with back-to-back wins. Williamstown thumped Frankston by 74-points back in round 12 and even the long trip to the Peninsula is unlikely to unsettle the Seagulls.
Last Modified on 26/08/2011 11:20